The Tightness of the Kesten-Stigum Reconstruction Bound of Symmetric Model with Multiple Mutations

It is well known that reconstruction problems, as the interdisciplinary subject, have been studied in numerous contexts including statistical physics, information theory and computational biology, to name a few. We consider a $2q$-state symmetric model, with two categories of $q$ states in each category, and 3 transition probabilities: the probability to remain in the same state, the probability to change states but remain in the same category, and the probability to change categories. We construct a nonlinear second order dynamical system based on this model and show that the Kesten-Stigum reconstruction bound is not tight when $q \geq 4$.Comment: Accepted, to appear Journal of Statistical Physic

Multiple Change-point Detection: a Selective Overview

Very long and noisy sequence data arise from biological sciences to social science including high throughput data in genomics and stock prices in econometrics. Often such data are collected in order to identify and understand shifts in trend, e.g., from a bull market to a bear market in finance or from a normal number of chromosome copies to an excessive number of chromosome copies in genetics. Thus, identifying multiple change points in a long, possibly very long, sequence is an important problem. In this article, we review both classical and new multiple change-point detection strategies. Considering the long history and the extensive literature on the change-point detection, we provide an in-depth discussion on a normal mean change-point model from aspects of regression analysis, hypothesis testing, consistency and inference. In particular, we present a strategy to gather and aggregate local information for change-point detection that has become the cornerstone of several emerging methods because of its attractiveness in both computational and theoretical properties.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figure

Computability, Noncomputability, and Hyperbolic Systems

In this paper we study the computability of the stable and unstable manifolds of a hyperbolic equilibrium point. These manifolds are the essential feature which characterizes a hyperbolic system. We show that (i) locally these manifolds can be computed, but (ii) globally they cannot (though we prove they are semi-computable). We also show that Smale's horseshoe, the first example of a hyperbolic invariant set which is neither an equilibrium point nor a periodic orbit, is computable

The Efficiency of Pension Plan Investment Menus: Investment Choices in Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Few previous studies have explored whether defined contribution retirement saving plans offer sufficiently diversified investment menus, though it is likely that these menus significantly shape workers’ accumulations of retirement wealth. This paper assesses the efficiency and performance of 401(k) investment options offered by a large group of US employers. We show that most plans are efficient compared to market benchmark indexes. Three performance measures underscore the fact that these plans tend to offer a sensible investment menu, when measured in terms of the menus’ mean-variance efficiency, diversification, and participant utility. The key factor contributing to plan efficiency and performance has to do with the types of funds offered, rather than the total number of investment options provided.

r-Process Nucleosynthesis in Shocked Surface Layers of O-Ne-Mg Cores

We demonstrate that rapid expansion of the shocked surface layers of an O-Ne-Mg core following its collapse can result in r-process nucleosynthesis. As the supernova shock accelerates through these layers, it makes them expand so rapidly that free nucleons remain in disequilibrium with alpha-particles throughout most of the expansion. This allows heavy r-process isotopes including the actinides to form in spite of the very low initial neutron excess of the matter. We estimate that yields of heavy r-process nuclei from this site may be sufficient to explain the Galactic inventory of these isotopes.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the Astrophysical Journal Letter

When and Where: Predicting Human Movements Based on Social Spatial-Temporal Events

Predicting both the time and the location of human movements is valuable but challenging for a variety of applications. To address this problem, we propose an approach considering both the periodicity and the sociality of human movements. We first define a new concept, Social Spatial-Temporal Event (SSTE), to represent social interactions among people. For the time prediction, we characterise the temporal dynamics of SSTEs with an ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model. To dynamically capture the SSTE kinetics, we propose a Kalman Filter based learning algorithm to learn and incrementally update the ARMA model as a new observation becomes available. For the location prediction, we propose a ranking model where the periodicity and the sociality of human movements are simultaneously taken into consideration for improving the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on real data sets validate our proposed approach